Both teams opened at -110. A true coin flip, according to every sportsbook that posted a line. Texas won 7-3, and if you had the Longhorns on the moneyline, you cashed without much drama. The game was effectively over before the first inning ended.
That first-inning implosion is the whole story for bettors. Here’s how it played out.
The Moneyline Was the Right Bet, for the Wrong Reasons
Texas winning wasn’t a surprise. They came in as the defending national champion, they had the sport’s most clutch pitcher in Teagan Kavan, and their offense had been on a tear all tournament. Katie Stewart had homered in three straight WCWS games heading into Wednesday. The pick’em line felt generous.
What nobody predicted was the specific way Texas won. Kaitlyn Terry started for Texas Tech and recorded 2 outs before getting yanked, having already surrendered 4 runs. The game was 5-1 before the first inning was over. Any moneyline on Texas cashed before most bettors had finished their first drink.
The run line is a different story. [VERIFY: run line for this game, likely Texas -1.5 or -1] A 4-run final margin clears most run lines comfortably, but the path there was messier than the score implies. Texas Tech hit two home runs and had genuine moments where the game could have tightened up.
Texas Tech Drew First Blood, Then Fell Apart
Mihyia Davis led off the top of the first with a solo home run. For exactly one half-inning, Texas Tech looked like the team that had survived three straight elimination games and knocked off Alabama twice to get here.
Then Terry walked out for the bottom of the first and could not get through it. Kaiah Altmeyer drove in a run. Ashton Maloney hit a two-run triple. Katie Stewart led off with a home run, her 4th in as many WCWS games, tying her for third on the all-time WCWS home run list at seven. Texas scored 5 runs in the inning and never looked back.
Terry allowed 4 runs and recorded 2 outs. Her replacement, Samantha Lincoln, came in and actually steadied things, giving up just 2 hits and 1 run across 3 innings. But the game was already gone by then.
Kavan’s Line Was Cleaner Than Her Stuff
Teagan Kavan finished with a complete game, 6 strikeouts, and a 3-hitter. It sounds dominant. It wasn’t quite that simple.
She allowed home runs to both Davis in the first and Mia Williams in the fifth. Williams’ shot was a 2-run blast to center that made it 6-3 and briefly injected some life into the Texas Tech dugout. Kavan’s final line was clean because she was excellent in the innings that mattered, not because Texas Tech couldn’t touch her. They just couldn’t sustain anything.
Any prop built around Kavan strikeouts [VERIFY: her strikeout prop line, likely set around 7.5-8.5] would have needed a bigger haul. Six strikeouts on a 3-hitter against a lineup anchored by NiJaree Canady’s supporting cast is a solid performance, not a dominant one.
The Stewart Homer Prop Cashed Again
Katie Stewart homering was the safest prop on the board by the time Wednesday night arrived. She had gone deep in three straight WCWS games. She homered in the first inning Wednesday to make it 4 consecutive. Her career total in the event now sits at 7, tied for third all-time.
[VERIFY: Stewart homer prop odds going into Game 1] If any book was still posting Stewart to homer at plus-money given her recent run, that was a gift. Bettors who noticed the streak and bet accordingly cashed for the fourth straight night.
The Total: What the Run Line Bettors Experienced
The final score of 7-3 means 10 combined runs. Softball totals are typically set in the 6.5 to 8.5 range for elite pitching matchups. If the total was anywhere in that range, the over hit. Kavan pitched well enough that a lower total was in play deep into the game, but the Williams 2-run homer in the fifth, combined with Texas’ 5-run first, pushed the scoring well above what a Kavan-led shutout would have produced.
The total bettors who went over were probably sweating through the third and fourth innings as Kavan retired hitters cleanly. Then Williams went deep and that was enough.
The Bet That Matters Tonight: Canady Never Threw a Pitch
Here’s the number that changes Game 2 entirely. NiJaree Canady, the first million-dollar college softball player and the reason Texas Tech is in this series, did not pitch in Game 1. She comes into Thursday’s elimination game fully fresh, on full rest, against a Texas lineup she knows as well as anyone.
Canady is 0.94 ERA this postseason. In last year’s WCWS finals against this same Texas team, she struck out the final batter of Game 2 with the tying run on third to force a winner-take-all Game 3. She is the reason Texas Tech got here, and she hasn’t thrown a single competitive pitch in this series yet.
Texas is one win away from a repeat championship. But bettors who are sleeping on Game 2 because of a 7-3 Game 1 loss are ignoring the most important variable on the board. The coin-flip line may be gone. Canady’s performance in Game 2 decides whether this series ends Thursday or goes to a winner-take-all Game 3 on Friday.
Game 2 is Thursday at 8 PM ET from Devon Park in Oklahoma City.